Still in a 5,5 Uptrend return group today so no signal to trade. I’m still out of all my trades sitting on cash and waiting for the next opportunity.
No change so far today, still a 5,5 Uptrend and I’m still sitting on cash.
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The return group moved down to a 4,5 Uptrend today. This is a buy signal for SPY Calls 30 Days out with ATM strike. I just bought it in my account. It is also a signal for SPX Puts, but I’m sticking to one trade today and I like the Calls better, lower risk.
If you want to trade to other signal, you would sell SPX Put 4650 strike with 2/2 exp, and buy a covering Put with same exp and strike near 4590
Here is my call purchase
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What is the success rate of the calls at this return group? This aiming for SPY ATH.
70% success rate
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We moved to a 4,4 Uptrend today. This is a signal for selling SPX Puts. I’ll try to get a trade put on before close.
We are still in a 4,4 Uptrend return group for the 3rd day in a row. This is a strong signal with 81% success rate with 500 occurrances in the past. I can’t pass this one up any longer. I’m selling SPX Put 4595 exp 2/5/24 and buying SPX Put 4535 with same exp.
I also averaged down on the SPY Call I bought a few days ago. It was down 44% so I typically average down when it gets over 40% loss. Nice buying opportunity.
In total, I am risking about $6k on these trades which is quite a bit of my profits from this strategy. The data says it will turn out well so we’ll see.
Here is the data:
Here is my account currently
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What call strike did you get? I took 473c exp 2/9. When the return group moved to 4.5 signaling calls, I added them to my watchlist with the intention to buy in at lower premium. Entered them yesterday morning average $5.51. They were at 8.40 when added to watchlist. Willing to average down if needed but I think I entered at a good price. What I have observed from the passed months from your analysis is that when return group signals a call buy, is best you wait couple of days to enter them as you get them for lower premiums. This might not mean anything, just putting it out there. You’re doing an amazing job!!
I got 472c with 2/2 exp.
Interesting observation that waiting a few days to enter is best. Given these are long-dated calls, you may be right that it’s better to wait a few days to enter.
Please keep me updated if you continue to play it this way.
You nailed it man!!!
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Thanks @cryptowhale101. The model shows a 70% chance SPY goes to 481 by 2/2/24 so I’m holding my calls for now. I hope yours is green today.
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The return group is still a 4,4 Uptrend today so the same signal as the past 3 days, Sell SPX Puts. I have about $6k at risk so I’m holding for now and not investing more.
Return group is the same today as yesterday.
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Assuming you still have your Feb SPY calls?
Yes and so do i
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yes, still holding. The model says I should hold till SPY hits 481. I’m up 46% on them currently. Because I averaged down, I’m getting better returns this time than I typically get. It’s usually around 40% once SPY increases 2%. I’ve hit it already and am not to 2% increase yet. I’m contemplating selling today before close in case we get a bad cpi number tomorrow.
yes I went ahead closed both mine out for good total profit. And needed to free up some cash for other plays. Thanks!
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The return group moved to a 4,5 Uptrend today. This is another signal for SPY Calls ATM strikes and 30 day exp. 70% success rate on those. You could sell SPX Puts too with a 78% success rate. It’s right on the line for me as I like 80% or better on those due to the higher risk/lower reward.
My dilemma here. 
I’m up 70%. So I’m thinking to sell and just enter some lottos for tomorrow
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Sell em!