We moved to a 3,2 Uptrend Return Group today so the play is still selling SPX Puts. I sold a SPX 4460 Put with 12/21 exp and bought the 4400 with same exp.
Here is the updated data.
Here is the trade
Return group is still 3,2 Uptrend so same signal as yesterday. I won’t play this one today since I already have $5k at risk. If I hadn’t put on the trade yesterday, I would put it on today. For today, it would be selling SPX 4450 and buying SPX 4390 both with 12/28 exp.
My trade from yesterday is down about 12% so far or $85.
The return group moved to a 4,2 Uptrend this morning which has the same signal as the past several days. I’m not trading it today, but would had I not already put the trade on a few days ago. That trade is up $85 currently.
Strange day . . . IV must be significantly higher than it was Monday. Although SPX is higher, my trade is currently at a $20 loss. Typically time is the best friend of these plays as Theta eats away at the value of the Puts sold. Not this week.
We are still in a 4,2 Uptrend return group today so the signal is the same. IV is pushing prices up as well so it may be a great day to put this trade on if you haven’t already. I’d sell 4460 and buy 4400 with 12/29 exp
We moved to a 4,3 Uptrend return group today which has a whopping 84% success rate selling SPX Puts. I’m putting on this additional trade before close today due to the high success rate and the high number of instances (977).
I’ll sell SPX 4500 and buy SPX 4440 with 12/29 Exp.
My trades are down a cumulative $90 this morning. I’m holding since the data indicates these should expire worthless with a very high degree of confidence.
The return group moved to 4,2 Uptrend this morning so the signal is the same. Since I have 2 trades on currently with $10k at risk, I won’t put any more trades on today. If I hadn’t put trades on already, I would today since the success rate is 78% with 695 instances of the return group.
Same return group as yesterday, I’m holding my two trades and sitting at $50 loss overall currently.
I wish the market would do something, this is boring. Same return group as the past 2 days. Holding my two at a slight loss currently.
The return group is the same again today, 4,2 Uptrend, so same play as previously.
My trades are finally looking better today. Up about $600 combined. The earlier trade is at 25% of what I sold it for so not too much more juice to squeeze out of it. Expires on the 21st so I’ll likely close that one out soon.
The second trade is trading at about 70% less than I sold it for so still some room for that one to profit and it expires on the 29th so the Santa rally would likely benefit that one.
We moved to a 4,3 Uptrend return group which is one of the very strongest signals for selling SPX Puts.
Today I’ll close the first trade above since I have reached 92% of it’s potential. Not much more to squeeze from it. I’m leaving the second trade on since it’s at 73% of it’s potential and I’m confident it will continue to move in the right direction.
I’ll also put on a new trade today due to the high success rate of the current return group and the high volume of instances. Here is my trade:
Sell SPX Put 4540 and buy 4450 both with 1/11 exp. Taking higher risk this time for higher premium since the success rate is so high.
Nice push up today. I’m happy with my trades. Decided to close the older one since I was at 85% of premium gained. Holding the other at 37%. The account is over $38k.
The return group is still a 4,3 Uptrend so it’s still one of the very best opportunities to sell SPX Puts. Since I sold my older trade, I put on another newer trade today. Sold 4595 and bought 4525 with 1/12 exp.
The return group moved to a 5,4 Uptrend today which only has a 75% success rate for selling SPX Puts so I would NOT recommend putting these trades on today. I’m still holding two trades with a max risk of around $16k or about half my account. Those trades moved very green very quickly and I’m up about $700 currently, 50% of premium for the first and 25% of premium for the one I put on late yesterday which is a record for me in how fast it moved that far. The account is approaching $38,500.
Return group is now in a 4,4 Uptrend which is a decent signal to sell SPX Puts, 81% success rate with 500 data points. I was late getting this out so no opportunity to buy today.
My trades are up $920 total so far. One has reached 59% of it’s premium and the other 37% so I’ll hold these a bit longer.
The return group moved to a 5,4 Uptrend today. No signal. I may close my positions because nearing ATH is making me nervous.
That’s when I loaded January spy 474p. Didn’t expect to be today I was expecting next week. You’re very much on point with your model. Waiting for your model to turn into a downtrend to load more.
Thank you!!!
We moved to a 5,5 Uptrend return group today. No signals from this model for this return group.
