Moved to a 3,2 Uptrend Return Group which is no good for buying calls, but is decent for selling Puts. Too busy to trade today so I missed out, but maybe tomorrow I’ll be able to if the setup is good.
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You’re analysis is great!! Took 424c exp 11/23 on the super bearish week based on your analysis on OCT 20. Did sell them for -5% on FOMC. Panic got the best out of me. Was super heavy. 3 days later they ended up being over +250%. It is what it is. Now holding puts for next week. Let’s see!! Just wanted to say you’re awesome!!
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I do find these trades can be mentally challenging. In addition to the long duration, the losses tend to be bigger than the wins. So the reason these trades are profitable overall is because the wins occur significantly more often if they are held long enough.
We moved to a 3,2 Even trend today so the signals are ok, not great, for selling SPX Puts. I prefer 80% or higher success rates for these. I also checked premiums for yesterday’s trades to see if those could be put on today at a reasonable amount. The max profit/loss ratio is no good. I would not recommend trading these signals today.
It’s interesting to see the probability SPY increases 2% within 30 days is only 52%. That’s one of the very lowest %s of all return groups.
Here is the updated data:
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These comments from 10/20 and 10/27 aged better than I expected. I continue to be surprised at how well the model predicts eventual results. It will be interesting to see if SPY reaches 444 by next Friday.
We are still in a 3,2 Even trend today so no trades I can recommend today. Updated data below.
We moved to a 3,2 Uptrend return group this morning. I just put on a 12/13/23 exp SPX 4310 / 4290 Put Spread based on the signal with a 78% success rate. To clarify, I sold a Put at the 4310 strike and bought a Put at the 4290 strike each with the same Exp. The SPY trade has a slightly higher success rate, but the premium/risk ratio is terrible on those.
Here is the data:
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Here is the updated data as of this morning. We moved into a 4,2 Uptrend. This is a signal for SPX Vertical Put Spreads. Sell SPX 4400 12/14 exp and buy covering Put to manage risk. I like the 4340 Put with same Exp. I’m still trying to decide if I want to trade this today. Big run today so may not be the day to trade it, but we may continue to run for a bit longer so it may be a great day to trade it. I’ll post here if I put the trade on.
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Just put the trade on
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Wow, the model was right, exceeded 444 before 11/17, crazy
Return group and signal same as yesterday. See data below. If you want to trade the signal today, I recommend Selling SPX 4405 with 12/15 exp and buying SPX 4360 with the same exp. I have 2 trades on currently so my exposure is $8k and I’m holding there for now. Had I not traded earlier, I would trade this today. This signal has a 78% success rate based on 695 instances. I like the high volume of instances. That gives me greater confidence in the signal.
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Screen shot of the account balance as of today to track overall account performance. YTD ROI is currently 25%. TD Ameritrade and TOS won’t show the overall YTD so I have to manually calculate it.
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That November dip 
Yeah, it sometimes takes a strong constitution to stick with these trades. My confidence in this model continues to grow and the recent trades a few weeks back was a great example.
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The return group is the same today so same signal. Here is the data. My two trades are up a combined $435 currently. I should probably put another one on today, but the $8k I have at risk is making me reluctant. Not planning to today.
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WMT holding up against this spy drop
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4,2 uptrend group is it good for put spreads only or just puts are fine too? Thinking to get some January puts
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It’s good for selling Puts, not buying them.
The return group is still at a 4,2 Uptrend today so same signal, but I’m closing my positions with the holiday coming up. I don’t like holding trades this mature over a long holiday where anything can happen. The trades are up about $1,000.
