The return group moved to a 4,1 down trend this morning. This is a good buy signal for SPY Calls 30 days out with strikes ATM. 74% is pretty good. Had I not already bought earlier, I would buy today. It’s not a great signal for selling Puts. We regularly get 80% or better success rates on these so anything below that I’m hesitant.
Here is the data:
My trades overall are red (55% on calls, 9% on selling Puts), but I’m holding and trusting the data so hopefully it will turn green soon.
Thanks for all your work and info Brutus…I grabbed some ATM SPY calls per this post and have averaged down since. I have 3 calls and currently only red at 12%, also hoping it will turn green soon, thx again!
Sure thing, good luck to us all
Return group is back to a 3,1 downtrend today. The success rates of the signals is so strong I’m tempted to trade again today, although I’m in pretty deep already. If I hadn’t yet, I would definitely trade these signals today. My confidence is sky high for Selling Puts. It’s amazing how easy they move in the right direction. Theta decay is really something.
Here are the specific trades the signal is calling out today.
Vertical Puts - Sell SPX Puts and buy a covering Put - Sell SPX 4130 strike (2% less than current) with 12/1/23 exp and Buy covering SPX Put 4060 with same exp.
Buy SPY Calls - 420 strike, 12/1/2023 exp
Here is the updated data as of this morning.
Just closed my three calls I grabbed since you 10/24 post…first one was red but managed to close all three for just over 20% after averaging down. Tempted to follow your post for today and re-enter but may wait to see if we get a dip.
Going with it as I closed my 10/27 calls for over 20%. 12/1 spy call $420 for $9.00. Let’s go!
do you take into consideration news for signlas thrown the day of? I scrolled up and saw you say you were going to ignore your gut from now on vs worrying about news but i’m curious whether or not you take a position whenver you feel like or end of day/after powell is done talking
I would consider it if it were something major like war or COVID, but trying to go with the data for the most part.
I also look at cost somewhat because iv can increase the cost of a SPY call ATM 30 days out to over $1,000. When I see the cost is under $900, that’s a decent price and shouldn’t be impacted negatively by iv as much.
My 12/1 $420 call taken today is already up 14%. I normally look for 20% or more with your plays depending on my position. Just curious if there’s a certain profit threshold your looking for on these m, generally speaking
exited at 33% on the call I took yesterday. Also curious about what percentages you generally look for in the 30 day timeframe and how long (if not planning to hold till expiration)
I just didn’t see a reason why I shouldn’t have exited given the pump from fomc
I look for a 2% increase in SPY as that is how the model determines success or failure. That typically results in 25-40% roi. So yes, exiting with 33% is good.
For example, I’m holding calls I bought at 423 so I’m looking for SPY 431.50 to sell.
Back to even on my original position! Hoping for a few more Green Day’s these next 2 weeks but may cut a few calls if we go up further this week. Thanks Brutus!
Trading these sometimes requires a high risk tolerance. With exp 30 days out, it can take a few weeks for these to work out which is tough when you see quadruple digit red in the meantime. I’m glad it’s moved in the right direction the last few days.
Just closed the call taken yesterday for 45% <:pepecelebrate:899174757969317898>
I think I will keep trying these as my position I already sold yesterday is damn near doubled now. However I understand there was a few factors that led to this pump coincidentally a day after I took a postition. Not saying it wasn’t the data, rather that was just quicker than I would normally expect given you just mentioned it can take a few weeks. FIrst ones always free, whether its just options or a new strategy <:kekw:923797443471081503>
I’m still holding all my trades from these signals. The SPY call I bought last Thursday at 413 is up 83% ($870). I’m up 14% ($316) on the 3 I bought at 423 (averaged down twice), and still red 30% ($1,000) on the 12 with 436 strike which I’ve averaged down numerous times, so I’m me near breakeven overall on these calls. I plan to sell the 413s and 423s once we hit $431.50. The data suggests I should hold the 436s till we hit 444.75. I doubt I’ll hold that long. I may cut them loose if we hit $431.50 depending on the roi at the time.
I’m also holding the 3 Vertical Puts purchased over the past week. I usually hold these till I can buy them for about 25 cents on the dollar. I’m getting close, sitting at about 50% currently, about $2,000 green so far.
Here is the data as of this morning. We moved into a 4,1 Uptrend return group which is very rare, only 91 occurrences since 1929. I’m not confident in this as a signal due to the low volume of data. I would not buy today based on this model.
Wow, it kept running after that last post. I decided to cut loose the SPY calls just a few minutes ago when SPY was at 429. The last few days were such a gift, I decided to take the W. I wanted 431.50, but if it takes another 3 days to a week to get there, theta will eat up my gains. I was up 20% overall on all my calls. I decided to keep 3 runners in case SPY continues up, the 436 calls. Locked in about $1k profit.
Still holding the SPX vertical Puts. Gonna let Theta keep chewing them up. Sitting on about $2,500 profit. Looking to get $3,500 in order to close out the trade. Not as much risk of loss on these since the strikes are at 4130, 4115, and 4060.
Decided to lock in profits end of day on SPX vertical Puts, reward low for risk and remaining time.
Closed out the remaining 3 SPY 436s Friday. After averaging down, was able to make a small profit on those. Overall, very pleased with these trades over the last week and a half.
Here is the updated data. Decent play on selling SPX Puts, but I was too busy to trade today. We’ll see what tomorrow holds. Although the win % is slightly less than 80%, the volume of instances is quite high which gives me a higher level of confidence in the win %.
