I’ll take your profit if you don’t 
Bruh… sell that shit … 70%
I’ll likely close all my positions today. I’m over my target Profit figure on the calls (my target is 40% and I’m at 48%) and within 15 points of my target for the Puts (my target is 80% and I’m at 66%). But mostly, it’s because my account hit $40k today (woo hoo!) and I want to lock in.
Although the signal says to buy Calls, I’d like to wait to see what happens with the CPI print. I’m hearing it may be higher than expected.
2 Likes
Fully out at 83%. Thank you!!!
3 Likes
The return group moved to a 4,4 Uptrend yesterday and remains there today. This is a strong signal to sell SPX Puts (81% success rate with 500 instances) so I’ll likely put a trade on. I’m surprised the market hasn’t declined after the higher than expected CPI numbers, but I’ve learned over the past 2 years that trusting the data instead of my gut is the best strategy.
I’ll sell a SPX 4700 Put with 2/12/24 exp and buy 4640 Put with the same Exp.
We moved back to a 4,5 Uptrend today. It’s a signal to buy SPY Calls ATM strikes with 30 days out exp. I’ll likely put this trade on today.
Interesting return group today. It’s a 4,5 Even trend which has only happened 38 times in history. It’s a signal for both buying SPY Calls ATM 30 days out (78% success rate) and selling SPX Puts 2% lower than ATM (84% success rate). It’s one of the highest success rates for both signals. But with only 38 data points, we can’t be as confident as other signals with more data points.
My portfolio is down $647 currently. I’ll be averaging down on the SPY call I purchased earlier. I may average down on the SPX Puts as well. This will put my max loss over $10k which I prefer not to do, but the data certainly indicates a move up within 30 days.
Here is the signal data:
The return group is the same today as yesterday, 4,5 Even trend so same signals. I’ve already invested as much as I’m comfortable with so I’m holding today. The portfolio has rebounded nicely today after averaging down yesterday. Still red, but only about $100 currently.
The return group remains in a 4,5 Uptrend so the signals are the same as the past few days. I’m not putting on any new trades today. I’m riding my to trades that I have on (SPX Puts I sold) and my max loss is around $10k. These are up 65% of Premium so I’m getting close to closing those out. Looking for 75-80% on those. Here is the data. 70% success rate on buying SPY Calls today with ATM strike and 30 days out exp. Less than 80% on selling Puts.
Still in a 4,5 Uptrend Return Group today. Same as yesterday. I’m still holding but may close out my trades before EOD. I’m at 74% of Premium and I typically close out at 75-80%.
The data says I should buy SPY Calls 30 days out with ATM strikes, but I’m going to wait to see how Thursday shakes out.
Closed mine out, hit 76% of premium
Averaging 9.7% per month since I started tracking this a few months ago, I’m happy
Added 486c exp 2/23 to my watchlist. I usually wait 2-3 days to jump on it. Let’s see how premiums are by then.
Yeah, I’m curious to see the results. Did you happen to record the premium today?
It fluctuates beetween 6.30 > 5.7>6.80. At -40% I’m looking at $4.10 entry i the next couple of days. Yes, NFLX good ER today might have SPY green all day tomorrow, then TSLA ER and so on. But hopefully before EOW we can get that good entry.
It’s at $5.60 as of close today. I like this strategy of waiting to see if the premium drops before buying. You may miss out on some opportunities, but the winners will be much larger.