The war from a different persepective

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I’m starting this topic to discuss the likeliness of a war happening between Ukraine and Russia.

My thesis: Unless there are clear indicators from China’s side, the war won’t happen.

In the first half of 2021, agricultural trade between China and Ukraine increased by 33 percent over the same period in 2020. On top of this, from 2016 to 2021 China’s investment in Ukraine rose from $50 million to $260 million. We know that it’s important for the government to protect it’s citizens and considering the strategic relationship between Russia and China, Putin will have to give a up heads up to China to pull out it’s oversea investors. So unless China receives any confirmation about withdrawing ties with Ukraine, the war isn’t going to happen.

Biden isn’t doing so hot right now, shitty markets, inflations. What could he do to diverge all these attention? Putin just saved his ass. Now he gets to throw all the media attention towards Europe. Nobody here is serious about starting a war, Not even the warmonger Putin. All of this is just a show to maintain their strong image until Ukraine gives in, just like 2014.

At the end of the day I think we should make moves on the tension that it created and not bet on the war itself. Obviously, this is just my opinion, discussions are welcomed!

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For the last week we’ve heard invasion imminent. I’ve read articles that say WW3. There’s tons of articles that say Biden says Putin decided to invade but he hasn’t yet. It seems like a bunch of typical click bait fear monger news. I can’t help but wonder what’s the true purpose of us being so involved in Ukraine, and what does Russia want with Ukrainian. What are the benefits for Putin/ Russia. What are the benefits for us. Does any of this at all have to do with Biden having the independent prosecutor fired who was investigating Ukraine corruption on the highest level. These are questions I ask myself. I also see a lot of articles stating that Putin says no invasion and that it’s western propaganda. I personally am suspicious of the whole tactic/ constant invasion news. My personal wish is that no life’s get lost an we all can live as peacefully as possible among one another. Time will tell.

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Playing the short-term sentiment and pops on war-affected stocks is definitely the safe play right now, versus going heavy assuming an outright war WILL happen. Market’s too volatile for me to take any hard positions.