Here is the data as of today. We’ve moved into a 5,3 downtrend which has occurred 173 times. This is a signal for both SPY Calls and selling SPX Puts. It has a 75% success rate for SPY Calls and a 82% success rate for selling SPX Puts. If you haven’t already played these signals, now is a great time to do so based on the model. I’ve got $8k at risk currently which has been about the max I’ve risked in the past, but I may go a bit further this time.
Thanks! Really good info here and I’m tempted to play the return group today.
Have you outlined somewhere how you’re calculating return groups?
Yes, it’s in the forum. If you search SPY Model there are 2 threads. It’s at the top of the first thread.
I played both signals today and decided to retain the 495 SPY Call a bit longer. I Sold a SPX 4960 and bougt a SPX 4900 with exp 5/23/24. I also bought a SPY 505 exp 5/24/24
Return group is 4,2 Downtrend today. Similar signals as yesterday but more data points so my confidence is higher that these will pay well. I’m contemplating putting on another SPX trade where I sell Puts 2% lower than current. If I hadn’t played these already, I would definitely jump in now. I’m up over $1,400 so far on the trades from the past few days.
Currently down $850 overall on these trades. Contemplating closing out trying again next time.
Decided to close out, lost $960 overall
Closed mine out as well. Always next time.
Yeah, I didn’t like the gdp numbers and continued inflation, could be a turning point. The data says these trades will still pay, but I’m not feeling too risky right now.
I had the same inkling so it’s good to know I wasn’t alone in wanting to cut.
Guess dumb luck worked out for me today. I averaged down again then got out of all but 1 contract at end of day with 40%. Keep em coming Brutus. Interested to see what the signal is tomorrow
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Also Ive started playing these different than I did the last few times. You mentioned we need at least a 40% gain to make this profitable if I remember correctly. Last go around I freaked out when I was looking at 70% losses after averaging down many times and sold at just below break even just to watch my contracts go up to over 100% gains a week later. I decided this time to do nothing but set average downs to 50% loss and sell at 40% gains. If I lost it all, fuck it. I’ll play the next one the same and statistically it will work. I am going to do that from now on
Another way of doing it which has worked for me except once, is added on your watchlist when Brutus calls it and then enter 2-3 days later for a lower premium. If it runs don’t chase it. Or open a starter positions and go heavier once it drops. I’m still holding my calls, and this time I didn’t not average. It’s -14%. I took the 507c exp 5/17. Will try to get out before FOMC next week. Possibly tomorrow if we get another run!
I guess I should have trusted the data, SPY back up and even above where it was a few days ago. No regrets though, managing risk requires loss of potential returns. The return group is a 4,3 downtrend which is a signal for SPY Calls. I’m not playing it, but it has a 71% success rate on 184 data points so it should pay.